Another week of more mediocrity. Before anyone questions, I just go with the stats. Baltimore has two blowouts that override the other garbage they’ve put out this season which is why they rank where they are.
#32 Arizona Cardinals (1-6-0, -92, LW: 32)
Only the Bills rank below the Cardinals in DVOA. Replacing the offensive coordinator will only do so much for this team. It makes one feel bad for the great Larry Fitzgerald. He’s now 35 years old and has spent his entire career with the Cardinals. Outside of a miracle Super Bowl run the times in Arizona have been rather bleak. Just more evidence that you need more than just one guy to make a team.
#31 Buffalo Bills (2-5-0, -94, LW: 31)
A huge week for Buffalo, at least here at Talk Back Fans. The week we renamed the Gabbert to the Peterman Derek Anderson almost gave us a Derek, posting a 39.8 QB Rating in their loss to the lowly Colts. Believe me when I tell you, there are a lot more bad teams than there are good ones in this league.
#30 San Francisco 49ers (1-6-0, -60, LW: 25)
#29 New York Giants (1-6-0, -48, LW: 30)
#28 Oakland Raiders (1-5-0, -66, LW: 27)
#27 Cleveland Browns (2-4-1, -26, LW: 23)
#26 Cincinnati Bengals (4-3-0, -19, LW: 19)
#25 Miami Dolphins (4-3-0, -26, LW: 21)
#24 Tennessee Titans (3-4-0, -21, LW: 28)
#23 Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4-0, -30, LW: 20)
#22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3-0, -29, LW: 26)
#21 Atlanta Falcons (3-4-0, -22, LW: 22)
#20 New York Jets (3-4-0, +6, LW: 15)
Congratulations to Sam Darnold for our first Geno of the season. The easiest bet over the last two decades is taking the Patriots to win the AFC East and while the Patriots have been the model organization in the league the other three participants in that division have been anything but that. Sometimes it amazes me how people don’t make more money gambling on such things. Instead of looking for more fun odds, just take the gimme bets.
#19 Indianapolis Colts (2-5-0, +4, LW: 29)
#18 Dallas Cowboys (3-4-0, +17, LW: 16)
#17 Denver Broncos (3-4-0, +1, LW: 24)
#16 Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2-1, +17, LW: 14)
#15 Detroit Lions (3-3-0, -1, LW: 18)
#14 Houston Texans (4-3-0, +11, LW: 17)
#13 Green Bay Packers (3-2-1, +4, LW: 13)
#12 Seattle Seahawks (3-3-0, +26, LW: 12)
#11 Carolina Panthers (4-2-0, +11, LW: 8)
Only one game so far has been decided by more than one possession and their two losses are to two bad teams. One has to wonder how much more wear and tear are left in Cam Newton’s body, and they really need some more offense to compliment what has been a pretty good defense, at least by DVOA. It will be interesting for NFL fans to see what happens when the Panthers and Saints hook up.
#10 Washington Redskins (4-2-0, +5, LW: 10)
#9 Los Angeles Chargers (5-2-0, +32, LW: 5)
#8 Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-0, +16, LW: 7)
#7 Minnesota Vikings (4-2-1, +12, LW: 11)
#6 New England Patriots (5-2-0, +35, LW: 6)
#5 Chicago Bears (3-3-0, +36, LW: 4)
#4 Kansas City Chiefs (6-1-0, +78, LW: 9)
#3 New Orleans Saints (5-1-0, +41, LW: 3)
#2 Baltimore Ravens (4-3-0, +75, LW: 1)
#1 Los Angeles Rams (7-0-0, +107, LW: 2)
This week I want to point out a very simple stat that does a great job of indicating how well an offense is going and how well a defense isn’t. You simply take a team’s completions and rushing attempts and add them together. That’s all there is to it. A team that regularly gets to 51 or 52 wins a lot more than a team that is in the low 40’s. If a team regularly gives up 51 or 52 you can be they wind up on the short end of the scoreboard.
So when you see the Cardinals (56.9 allowed per game), Colts (54.1), Bengals (53.7), and Browns (52.7) at the bottom, you shouldn’t be surprised that they are not faring well. Conversely, when you see the Saints (56.2 per game on offense) or the Patriots (53.1) you can see how they continue to succeed despite weak defenses.
What I love about this stat is that you don’t need a calculator figure it out and that you can start to figure out trends in games. If you see a team that has a massive amount more completions and rushes than their opponent and it’s a close game, don’t be surprised to see the team with more to close it out.
For Browns fans this should be startling, because what this stat is telling me is that the only way they stop teams is if their opponents stop themselves – turnovers – and good teams don’t turn the ball over.