Power Rankings and FIbonacci

MLB Power Rankings

 

Another week of the TBF Power Rankings as we enter the Dog Days of August . . .

 

#30 Kansas City Royals (34-77, -200, LW:  30)

#29 Baltimore Orioles (34-78, -158, LW:  28)

#28 San Diego Padres (44-70, -113, LW:  29)

#27 Miami Marlins (46-67, -150, LW:  24)

#26 Chicago White Sox (41-70, -143, LW:  27)

#25 New York Mets (45-64, -86, LW:  22)

#24 Detroit Tigers (47-65, -85, LW:  25)

#23 Cincinnati Reds (49-63, -55, LW:  20)

#22 Toronto Blue Jays (51-60, -59, LW:  23)

#21 Texas Rangers (49-64, LW:  26)

#20 Los Angeles Angels (55-58, -61, LW:  26)

There have been talk about Mike Scioscia being out as manager of the Angels.  If this is true some thoughts:

 

  • He is the only manager the Angels have had this century

 

  • He has managed the Angels under three different names (Anaheim Angels, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and Los Angeles Angels)

 

  • His 3029 games managed for the Angels is more than twice as many as any other manager (Bill Rigney, the first manager in franchise history, managed 1333 games)

 

  • He is the all-time franchise leader in games, wins, and winning percentage

 

  • He is the only manager in franchise history to win a playoff series

 

  • He led the team to their only World Series championship in 2002

 

If this is it, he probably deserves a better ending than this, but as we’ve been told, all things end badly, that’s why the end.

 

#19 Seattle Mariners (64-48, -19, LW:  14)

The Mariners are starting to find out just how difficult it is to win when you can’t outscore your opponents.  Just to put into perspective how difficult it is to do what the Mariners are attempting:

 

  • Only 105 teams that have had winning records had a negative scoring differential (7.3%)
  • Only the 2007 Diamondbacks, 1997 Giants, and 1987 Twins have made the postseason after being outscored for the season (2.9%)
  • Only the 1987 Twins (50%)

 

In other words, the Mariners have about a one in 945 chance of winning it all, and their playoff odds have dropped 55% from a month ago at this time.  It sucks because I would like to see the longest playoff drought in major North American sports to go the way of Old Yeller, but Pythagoras seldom lies.

 

 

#18 Tampa Bay Rays (56-56, +2, LW:  18)

#17 San Francisco Giants (57-56, -29, LW:  21)

#16 Minnesota Twins (52-58, -17, LW:  19)

#15 Colorado Rockies (59-52, -10, LW:  5)

#14 St. Louis Cardinals (58-54, +21, LW:  17)

#13 Pittsburgh Pirates (57-55, -6, LW:  8)

I know I’m in the minority on this, but I didn’t like the trade for Chris Archer (Danger Zone!).  He’s 29 years old has since his 2015 campaign when he posted a 3.23 ERA he’s posted an ERA of 4.14.  His strikeout rate is down from last year as well.  I don’t think that was worth two top prospects.

 

#12 Los Angeles Dodgers (61-52, +91, LW:  4)

#11 Washington Nationals (57-54, +66, LW:  16)

#10 Atlanta Braves (60-48, +70, LW:  15)

#9 Chicago Cubs (64-47, +98, LW:  7)

#8 Milwaukee Brewers (66-49, +44, LW:  12)

Jesus Aguilar was signed by the Indians from Venezuela as a 17-year old in 2007.  It took him seven years but in 2014 he made his major league debut.  In 64 plate appearances over three seasons he posted a 19 OPS+ and was waived after the 2016 season.  The Brewers took a flyer on the 26-year old and last season in 133 games he hit 16 homeruns and posted a 114 OPS+.  This season he has upped that to a 144 OPS+ with 26 homeruns and made his first all-star team.  Considering 23-year old Orlando Arcia is putting up a meager 31 OPS+ taking on a bulk of the work at short, Aguilar’s production just might be the key to their playoff push.

 

#7 Arizona Diamondbacks (62-51, +67, LW:  10)

#6 New York Yankees (68-42, +122, LW:  3)

#5 Philadelphia Phillies (63-48, +37, LW:  11)

#4 Cleveland Indians (61-49, +100, LW:  9)

#3 Oakland Athletics (67-46, +59, LW:  6)

#2 Houston Astros (71-42, +199, LW:  2)

#1 Boston Red Sox (79-34, +191, LW:  1)

 

I was going to go without a Stat of the Week and blame it on inhaling tree bark, but since I’ve been reading Bill James’ “Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?” I decided to point out a fun number regarding a stat I pay little attention to:  The pitcher win.  Fibonacci was an Italian mathematician during the Middle Ages.  If you want find out more . . . Ah, I know you don’t, so I’m just going to point out the Finobacci Win Score.  He didn’t invent it, but it’s his principle and the best part is that it takes a pitcher’s W-L record and gives it a linear score.  For a pitcher’s career, take his wins and multiply it with his winning percentage and then add the number of games above .500.  If a pitcher has a .618 winning percentage, the number of wins a pitcher has will be his Win Score.  Cy Young, for example, has 511 wins and a .618 winning percentage, 195 games over .500:

 

511 x .618 = 316

316 + 195 = 511

 

A pitcher like Nolan Ryan, who had 324 wins but was only 32 games over .500, has a much lower score:

 

324 x .526 = 170

170 + 32 = 202

 

All of a sudden a pitcher like Sandy Koufax, who has 159 fewer wins than the Express but was 78 games over .500 comes much closer in scoring, despite the much shorter career:

 

165 x .655 = 108

108 + 78 = 186

 

Or even a more modern inductee like Pedro Martinez:

 

219 x .687 = 150

150 + 119 = 269

 

Obviously there are a lot of other factors like strikeouts, walks, postseason performance, etc., but for those of you who are still hell bent on keeping up on pitcher wins, I’ll meet you half way and use this from now on.

 

Again, none of the number I have presented this season are end-all-be-all stats.  They’re just better ways of interpreting the number we have.  Well, except for Pythagoras.  He still seldom lies.

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