Another week of mediocrity at best. It’s another entry of the NFL Power Rankings. All Rankings are relative to the current state of the league.
#32 Arizona Cardinals (1-5-0, -57, LW: 32)
#31 Buffalo Bills (2-4-0, -62, LW: 31)
#30 New York Giants (1-5-0, -45, LW: 25)
For all the talk about Eli Manning – because only the quarterback matters – nothing, and I mean NOTHING, has been said about the Giants defense. Coming into their Thursday night debacle against the Eagles they ranked 24thin overall defensive DVOA, 22nd against the pass, and 25th against the run. Last season they were also 24th overall, 19th against the pass and 26th against the run. In 2016 they were 2nd overall, 4th against the pass and second against the run. But in 2015 they were 30th overall, 28th against the pass and 21stagainst the run. In 2014 they were 24th overall, 21st against the pass, 27thagainst the run. Their records each season:
2018: 1-5-0
2017: 3-13-0
2016: 11-5-0
2015: 6-10-0
2014: 6-10-0
For those scoring at home that is 27-43-0 over the last five years. And yes, Eli is the inspiration for the Eli stat because he has thrown three or more picks in a game 22 times in his career. But do you know what else? His completion percentage this season is easily the highest of his career, his yards per attempt is right in line with his career, as is his TD/Int ratio. Saquon Barkley has been a nice addition to the offense, but if the defense continues to play as horribly as they have I’ll give you the combination of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, John Unitas, Joe Montana, Sid Luckman, and Otto Graham and they would still be lucky to win 4 games this season.
#29 Indianapolis Colts (1-5-0, -28, LW: 24)
#28 Tennessee Titans (3-3-0, -20, LW: 17)
#27 Oakland Raiders (1-5-0, -66, LW: 30)
#26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3-0, -32, LW: 27)
#25 San Francisco 49ers (1-5-0, -31, LW: 26)
#24 Denver Broncos (2-4-0, -34, LW: 28)
#23 Cleveland Browns (2-3-1, -23, LW: 18)
#22 Atlanta Falcons (2-4-0, -25, LW: 29)
#21 Miami Dolphins (4-2-0, -15, LW: 23)
#20 Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3-0, -17, LW: 7)
Please tell me again how the NFL doesn’t suck. Three teams are tied for first at 3-3, all three stink, and taking up the rear is Capt. Andrew Luck, his mother, and the Colts at 1-5. Houston is the epitomy of average. They don’t blow teams out (wins by 3, 3 (both in overtime), and 7) and they don’t get blown out (losses by 7, 5, and 3). They average 6.0 yards per play, they give up 5.5 yards per play. They have lost to the defending conference champs, a team that is now 1-5 (and was 3-13 last year), and a team that made the wild card because the Browns were terrible last season. They have beaten a playoff team from last year and two so-so teams.
Seriously, if not the Luck and Blake Bortles Facts Twitter accounts, this division would have nothing to offer. Well, really they are all the NFL really has to offer.
#19 Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-0, +16, LW: 9)
#18 Detroit Lions (2-3-0, -12, LW: 20)
Matthew Stafford’s cap hit this season is 14.5% of the Lions total salary cap. That hit goes up to nearly 17% by 2020. By taking up that much cap space the Lions are inequipped to acquire other players that could contribute and instead are banking on untested rookies, many if not all of which will not pan out. This is one of the many reasons quarterbacks are overrated. Because people believe you can’t win without a franchise quarterback teams:
- Spend high draft picks on them,
- Overpay them if they don’t competely stink, or
- Overpay a veteran who once looked someone competent in someone’s eyes, and
- Take considerable cap hits instead of looking for other ways to make their team successful
Detroit isn’t the only team in this situation and others will follow suit. There’s a reason the Patriots were 11-5 the one year Brady was out hurt.
#17 Houston Texans (3-3-0, -2, LW: 19)
#16 Dallas Cowboys (3-3-0, +20, LW: 22)
#15 New York Jets (3-3-0, +26, LW: 11)
#14 Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2-1, +17, LW: 12)
#13 Green Bay Packers (3-2-1, +4, LW: 13)
#12 Seattle Seahawks (3-3-0, +26, LW: 16)
#11 Minnesota Vikings (3-2-1, -8, LW: 21)
#10 Washington Redskins (3-2-0, +2, LW: 15)
#9 Kansas City Chiefs (5-1-0, +43, LW: 5)
#8 Carolina Panthers (3-2-0, +7, LW: 8)
#7 Philadelphia Eagles (3-3-0, +20, LW: 14)
#6 New England Patriots (4-2-0, +28, LW: 6)
#5 Los Angeles Chargers (4-2-0, +31, LW: 10)
Not that anyone in the City of Angels cares, but they just might have two playoff teams to watch come January. It’s not that the Chargers are really any good, it’s that if you look at their remaining schedule, they have Tennessee (who stinks), at Seattle (pretty good), at Oakland (stinks), Denver (stinks), Arizona (really stinks), at Pittsburgh (decent), Cincinnati (not bad), at Kansas City (good), Baltimore (decent), and at Denver (stinks).
The Chargers at 10-6 would look pretty good for a playoff spot at that point, maybe even 11-5. Ah, mediocrity.
#4 Chicago Bears (3-2-0, +43, LW: 3)
#3 New Orleans Saints (4-1-0, +40, LW: 4)
#2 Los Angeles Rams (6-0-0, +78, LW: 1)
#1 Baltimore Ravens (4-2-0, +76, LW: 2)
This week I wanted to add a couple of things to the TBF Stats Glossary. As you know, we really don’t track the common stats here, we track other ones more for enjoyment than anything else. Back in Week 1 of these rankings I introduced five QB Stats: The Eli, the Derek, the Gabbert, the Geno, and the Dalton. These are two add-ons to the last two because no two Geno’s or Dalton’s are alike. These stats are the Geno Score and the Dalton Score. The Geno Score is based on just how bad the Eli, Derek, and Gabbert games were. Lets’s take two from last season, both from the Browns (for the sake of making the Dalton Score somewhat more useable here) In Week 2 DeShone Kizer was 15 of 31 for 182 yards, no TD’s and 3 picks, giving him a QB Rating of 27.3 and a QBR of 3.7. To calculate the Geno Score We simply add up how much worse they are to the baselines, so for Kizer:
3 Int’s minus 3 (baseline for an Eli) equals 0
Plus (39.6 (baseline for a Derek) minus 27.3) equals 12.6
Plus (10.0 (baseline for a Gabbert*) minus 3.7)
Equals 18.9
*-Important note: the TBF crew has decided that a Gabbert is now a Peterman in honor of Nathan Peterman. Congratulations, Nathan, you’re plywood plaque is en route as we speak!
Now, in Week 6 Kevin Hogan was 20 of 37 for 140 yards, 1 TD and 3 picks. His Geno Score:
3 minus 3 equals 0
Plus (39.6 minus 38.1) equals 1.5
Plus (10.0 minus 8.6)
Equals 2.9
This scale really goes from 0.0 to infinity, but realistically it is probably around 52.6, since QBR and QB Rating bottom out at zero and I only remember Ty Detmer throwing 7 interceptions in a single game*. Now keeping that in mind, the Dalton Score – a Dalton being two Geno’s in a single season – is getting the mean between them. This is nothing more than the Bill James Power/Speed Number, except that instead of homeruns and stolen bases, we are using the two Geno Scores:
18.9 times 2.9 times 2 equals 107.88
Divided by (18.9 plus 2.9)
Equals 4.96
*-the record is 8 by Jim Hardy of the then-Chicago Cardinals on September 24, 1950 against the Eagles. Detmer’s feat was matched by five others, most recent one to him (his was two Sunday’s after 9/11 against the Browns) by Steve DeBerg against the 49ers in 1986. You just aren’t allowed to make mistakes like you used to.
Feel free to use these stats at your leisure as we do here.